Muskwatch — Tesla & Elon Promise Tracker

Source

Yahoo Finance (real-time)

TSLA · NasdaqGS · USD

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Stock Price

$449.72

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Formula

Market Cap = Price x Shares

$449.72 x 3.21B = $1.44T

Market Cap

$1.44T

3.21B shares

Formula

P/E = Price / TTM EPS

$449.72 / $1.03 = 437

TTM EPS = FY2025 earnings per share

P/E Ratio (TTM)

306

Q4 2025

Formula

P/S = Market Cap / TTM Revenue

$1,443B / $94.8B = 15.2

TTM Revenue = FY2025 total revenue

P/S Ratio

17.8

TTM Revenue $94.8B

Next Earnings Report

Apr 22, 2026

After market close · Q1 2026 results

TSLA vs S&P 500 vs NASDAQ (% Change)

Revenue per Employee ($K)

Tesla Auto Industry Avg

Average Selling Price per Vehicle ($K)

Revenue by Geography ($B) — FY2025

Source: Tesla 10-K FY2025 geographic segments

Short Interest (% of Float)

2.8% Current (~90M shares short)

Source: NASDAQ short interest reports, ORTEX

Insider Trading Activity

Date	Insider	Type	Shares	Value

Source: SEC Form 4 filings

Supercharger Network

Total Stalls

62,000+

Worldwide

Countries

55+

6 continents

Growth Rate

+23%

YoY stall additions

V4 Superchargers (350kW) deploying globally. NACS connector now standard across most major US automakers. Network opened to non-Tesla EVs in 2024.

Source: Tesla Q4 2025 shareholder deck

DCF Calculator — Implied Share Price

Revenue Growth Rate (%)

Discount Rate (%)

Terminal Multiple (x)

Implied Share Price

Base: FY2025 Revenue $94.8B, FCF margin 6.5%, 3.21B shares. 5-year projection. This is a simplified model for educational purposes only.

Price Alert Simulator

Target Price: $

Key Milestones Timeline

EV Competitor Comparison — FY2025

Metric	Tesla	BYD	Rivian	Lucid
Revenue	$94.8B	$109.4B	$4.8B	$0.8B
Deliveries	1.64M	4.27M	51K	9K
Gross Margin	17.9%	20.4%	-5.2%	-112%
Net Income	$4.4B	$5.6B	-$4.7B	-$2.7B
Market Cap	~$1.4T	~$110B	~$12B	~$6B
P/S Ratio	~15x	~1x	~2.5x	~7.5x
Cash	$36.6B	~$18B	$5.8B	$3.4B

Source: Company filings, SEC 10-K/20-F. Market caps approximate as of Mar 2026.

Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Revenue miss: $24.9B vs $27.3B expected. Full-year revenue declined 2.9% to $94.8B.
Deliveries down: 1.64M vehicles, down 8.6% YoY. First annual decline in Tesla history.
Energy bright spot: Energy storage deployed 46.7 GWh (+113% YoY), revenue hit $12.5B.
FSD progress: Unsupervised FSD launched in Austin, Jun 2025. Expanded to Bay Area by Q4.
Cybercab timeline: Musk confirmed production start target of Apr 2026 at Giga Texas.
Margin pressure: Gross margin 17.9%, flat YoY. Price cuts and competition weighing.
Optimus update: 1,000+ units in Tesla factories. External sales "by end of 2026."
Cash strong: $36.6B cash, lowest debt-to-equity (0.11) in company history.

Source: Tesla Q4 2025 Earnings Call, Jan 29, 2026

Earnings Call Highlights

Robotaxi Fleet Status

Data via RobotaxiTracker.com · Safety Tracker · ShadowMode

Active Fleet

~200

158 Bay Area · 42 Austin

Service Availability

~19%

of operating hours

Miles per Incident

3,910

Austin fleet (NHTSA data)

Expansion Planned

6 cities

Dallas · Phoenix · Miami · Orlando · Tampa · Vegas

Fleet Growth (Estimated Monthly)

China NEV Market

Source: CPCA, CAAM, company IR filings

China Total NEV Sales (M units)

BEV + PHEV · Source: CAAM

Brand Growth Comparison (K units)

Revenue Comparison ($B USD)

Annual · RMB converted at avg annual rate · Source: Company annual reports (HKEX, SEC, SSE)

Net Profit / Loss Comparison ($B USD)

Annual · Negative = net loss · Source: Company annual reports

Promise Accuracy Over Time (%)

Accuracy = delivered / (delivered + missed) for promises with that target year

Promises by Category

Promises by Status

FSD Promise Timeline (Gantt View)

Every FSD/autonomy promise mapped on a single timeline. Red = missed, green = delivered.

ARK Invest TSLA Price Target 2029

Bear

$800

Base

$1,400

Bull

$2,600

Source: ARK Big Ideas 2025 · Open-source model

Revenue Mix — Bull Case 2029

Robotaxi

$536B

63% of revenue · 7.5M fleet

Vehicle Sales

$204B

24% · ~12M units

Energy

$68B

8% · Storage + Solar

Insurance + Other

$42B

5% · Fleet data advantage

Key Assumptions

Robotaxi Launch & Scaling

ARK assumes Tesla launches unsupervised robotaxi in multiple US cities by 2026, scaling to 7.5M fleet vehicles by 2029.

Current reality: ~200 vehicles in Austin + Bay Area (supervised). Safety monitor still present. Only ~19% availability. Far from the projected scale. Risk: Regulatory approval, technical reliability, public trust. Waymo operates ~1,000 unsupervised vehicles — Tesla has 0 unsupervised.

Revenue per Robotaxi: $71K–$100K/yr

Each autonomous vehicle generates $71K–$100K annual revenue through ride-hailing, assuming 50-70% utilization rate at ~$1/mile.

Comparison: Uber drivers average ~$40-50K gross revenue/year. Waymo charges $2-4/mile in SF. ARK assumes Tesla undercuts at ~$1/mile but runs 16+ hours/day. Key variable: Utilization rate. Current Tesla robotaxi utilization: ~19% of operating hours. Needs 3-4x improvement.

12M Vehicle Sales by 2029

ARK projects Tesla sells ~12M vehicles annually by 2029, up from 1.64M in 2025. Requires 7x growth in 4 years.

Growth needed: ~63% CAGR. Tesla's actual CAGR 2020-2025 was ~27%. Deliveries declined in 2024 (-1%) and 2025 (-8.6%). New models needed: Cybercab, Model Q, refreshed lineup. Risk: Competition from BYD (4.3M in 2025), legacy OEMs, Chinese EVs.

FSD Adoption: 50%+ Take Rate

ARK assumes FSD subscription adoption reaches 50%+ of Tesla fleet as unsupervised driving proves reliable.

Current take rate: Estimated 5-10% of new Tesla buyers purchase FSD ($8K) or subscribe ($99/mo). ARK needs 5-10x increase. Catalyst: True unsupervised FSD would be transformative. Blocker: FSD still Level 2 supervised as of Mar 2026.

40%+ Operating Margin on Robotaxi

ARK assumes software-like margins on robotaxi revenue since Tesla owns the stack: hardware, software, fleet, and network.

Logic: Once FSD works, marginal cost per ride is low (electricity + maintenance). Tesla keeps ~70%+ of fare (no driver). Comparison: Uber takes 25-30% and is barely profitable. Waymo's unit economics are still unpublished. Risk: Insurance costs, regulatory fees, fleet maintenance could erode margins significantly.

Bear vs Bull — What Must Go Right

Bear Case ($800)

Robotaxi delayed to 2028+
Vehicle sales flat at ~2M/yr
FSD remains supervised
Margins stay compressed
Competition erodes market share

Bull Case ($2,600)

Unsupervised FSD works by 2027
Robotaxi in 50+ cities by 2029
12M+ vehicle deliveries
Energy becomes $50B+ business
Optimus begins generating revenue

Analysis based on ARK Invest's open-source TSLA valuation model (Feb 2025). GitHub Model

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