ARK assumes Tesla launches unsupervised robotaxi in multiple US cities by 2026, scaling to 7.5M fleet vehicles by 2029.
Current reality: ~200 vehicles in Austin + Bay Area (supervised). Safety monitor still present. Only ~19% availability. Far from the projected scale. Risk: Regulatory approval, technical reliability, public trust. Waymo operates ~1,000 unsupervised vehicles — Tesla has 0 unsupervised.
2
Revenue per Robotaxi: $71K–$100K/yr
Each autonomous vehicle generates $71K–$100K annual revenue through ride-hailing, assuming 50-70% utilization rate at ~$1/mile.
Comparison: Uber drivers average ~$40-50K gross revenue/year. Waymo charges $2-4/mile in SF. ARK assumes Tesla undercuts at ~$1/mile but runs 16+ hours/day. Key variable: Utilization rate. Current Tesla robotaxi utilization: ~19% of operating hours. Needs 3-4x improvement.
3
12M Vehicle Sales by 2029
ARK projects Tesla sells ~12M vehicles annually by 2029, up from 1.64M in 2025. Requires 7x growth in 4 years.
Growth needed: ~63% CAGR. Tesla's actual CAGR 2020-2025 was ~27%. Deliveries declined in 2024 (-1%) and 2025 (-8.6%). New models needed: Cybercab, Model Q, refreshed lineup. Risk: Competition from BYD (4.3M in 2025), legacy OEMs, Chinese EVs.
4
FSD Adoption: 50%+ Take Rate
ARK assumes FSD subscription adoption reaches 50%+ of Tesla fleet as unsupervised driving proves reliable.
Current take rate: Estimated 5-10% of new Tesla buyers purchase FSD ($8K) or subscribe ($99/mo). ARK needs 5-10x increase. Catalyst: True unsupervised FSD would be transformative. Blocker: FSD still Level 2 supervised as of Mar 2026.
5
40%+ Operating Margin on Robotaxi
ARK assumes software-like margins on robotaxi revenue since Tesla owns the stack: hardware, software, fleet, and network.
Logic: Once FSD works, marginal cost per ride is low (electricity + maintenance). Tesla keeps ~70%+ of fare (no driver). Comparison: Uber takes 25-30% and is barely profitable. Waymo's unit economics are still unpublished. Risk: Insurance costs, regulatory fees, fleet maintenance could erode margins significantly.
Bear vs Bull — What Must Go Right
Bear Case ($800)
Robotaxi delayed to 2028+
Vehicle sales flat at ~2M/yr
FSD remains supervised
Margins stay compressed
Competition erodes market share
Bull Case ($2,600)
Unsupervised FSD works by 2027
Robotaxi in 50+ cities by 2029
12M+ vehicle deliveries
Energy becomes $50B+ business
Optimus begins generating revenue
Analysis based on ARK Invest's open-source TSLA valuation model (Feb 2025). GitHub Model
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